2009 WNBA Preview - Western Conference

June 5, 2009

Click here for yesterday's Eastern Conference preview. And don't forget to scroll down to the bottom of this article to see the predictions for the final WNBA standings and the End of Season Awards.

This time in 2008, we were expecting a wild ride in the WNBA's Western Conference, and this year is no different. San Antonio will be fighting tooth and nail to hold on to the conference crown they won for the first time last season, but several competitors return even stronger than last year. LA has wheeled and dealed to deepen its already stacked roster, Seattle continues to build around its returning Australian superstar, Minnesota just gets younger and hungrier and Sacramento will still make you fight for every last point. And that bunch in Phoenix just keeps shooting, and shooting, and shooting....

2009 WNBA Preview - Western Conference-Body-6

Significant additions: Tina Thompson, Betty Lennox, Noelle Quinn, Vanessa Hayden, Kristi Harrower.
Significant losses: Candace Parker until she returns from the rigors of reproduction, Temeka Johnson, myriad other junk they won't really notice (Sidney Spencer, Rafaella Masciadri, Christi Thomas, Murriel Page)

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Noelle Quinn
SG: Betty Lennox
SF: DeLisha Milton-Jones
PF: Tina Thompson
C: Lisa Leslie

Bench includes: Kristi Harrower, Vanessa Hayden, Marie Ferdinand-Harris, Shannon Bobbitt, Lindsey Wisdom-Hylton, last year's League MVP once Momma gets her groove back.

Rare is the team that can lose last season's MVP and yet come back looking even more talented and loaded than they were last year. Penny Toler may have her issues as a GM (and there are plenty if you listen to stories from behind the scenes of the WNBA), but she has to be given credit for working to improve a team that was one miracle Sophia Young basket away from the WNBA Finals last season. They still have their issues, and coach Michael Cooper has already announced that he'll be jumping ship to USC at the end of the season, but any basketball coach will tell you that the main thing they need to win is as many talented players as possible - and this roster is stacked.

The strength of the Sparks, even with their 2008 MVP power-forward starting out on the sidelines, is very much found in the paint. WNBA legend Lisa Leslie has already announced that this will be her final season, but knowing her this isn't going to be any kind of relaxing farewell tour. She's still one of the best centers in the game, has expanded her range in her later years and is still an exceptional help-defender (although that WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award last season was a bit of a stretch). Compensating for the loss of Candace Parker, Los Angeles simply went out and got an All-Decade replacement with four WNBA Championship rings from Houston, Tina Thompson. TT isn't quite the player she used to be, especially defensively, and she prefers to play more away from the basket these days, but she is still an exceptional talent. Her veteran smarts and basketball IQ may make the high-low plays that make up much of LA's offense run more smoothly than they did last season. Just like last year with Parker, DeLisha Milton-Jones should be a comfortable fit with Thompson at the other forward spot in LA. She may be a more natural power forward, but DMJ is an excellent and versatile defender who's also capable of putting up points if opponents forget about her while dealing with the threats from elsewhere. Bringing in someone of the calibre of Thompson should hopefully mean Milton-Jones won't be too upset about continuing to play something of a subservient role to the superstar teammates alongside her.

As long as their big three stay healthy there won't be too many backup minutes to go around in the post in LA, which might be a good thing. Vanessa Hayden was brought in from Minnesota (at bizarrely high expense, in terms of her contract) and should get some time at center. She's huge, and has some skills, but was plagued by inconsistency with the Lynx and could find herself quickly in Cooper's doghouse. She may well have been signed more with a view to the post-Leslie future than for this season. Otherwise the only post insurance to start the year is untested rookie Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton. Of course, once we get a month or so into the season, the post talent could take a significant leap if Ms. Parker comes back to play. All the noises coming out of LA suggest she's on her way, but it's always hard to tell how a player will rebound from pregnancy, especially when she only gave birth a few weeks ago. Although someone like Parker playing at half-speed would still be one of the most dangerous weapons in the league, especially considering the talent surrounding her.

Los Angeles' backcourt last season was their blindingly obvious weakness, and while it's been significantly upgraded in the offseason, questions still abound as to how well this will work out. Betty Lennox, released by Atlanta, is a scoring machine when she's on and is a huge upgrade over the likes of Marie Ferdinand-Harris and Kiesha Brown, who filled the shooting guard spot for the Sparks last year. However, Betty sometimes isn't the biggest fan of passing the rock, and last time I checked each game was only allowed to involve one basketball. The offensive talent improvement should be enough to make it work, but it might be a little rocky at times. After struggling through last season with Shannon Bobbitt and occasional glimpses of Temeka Johnson running the point, LA blew up the position in the offseason, trading away Johnson and acquiring both Noelle Quinn and Australian Kristi Harrower to come in and try to improve the situation. Quinn will likely start, seeing as they gave up a first-round pick for her and it will be interesting to see how she fits in LA. Cooper has always liked big point guards (understandable after winning championships while playing with Magic Johnson and coaching Nikki Teasley), and he gets that in Quinn, but there were reasons why Minnesota was so amenable to moving her. She's not quick, to say the least, and her shooting has left a lot to be desired during her first two years as a pro, but she does at least have an eye for a pretty pass. There could be problems at the defensive end of the floor, where both Lennox and Quinn have an occasional tendency to stink the place up. The help defense from the likes of Milton-Jones and Leslie should mitigate that, but Cooper will need to work on making their perimeter defense any better than the mess it was last year.

Harrower could be a solid backup at the point but never had the greatest of success during her previous attempts at the WNBA, and she's older and slower now. If they get really desperate, Bobbitt also managed to survive through training camp as an extra alternative. Ferdinand-Harris is still around as well (more due to her contract than her play) and may be more comfortable as a backup than the starting role she was asked to fill last year. Surprisingly, Spanish guard Marta Fernandez was cut in training camp, possibly a victim of LA being unable to shift Ferdinand-Harris's contract off the books.

The Sparks are the team that the majority of 'experts' are picking to win it all, and it's easy to see why. Milton-Jones/Thompson/Leslie make up the most imposing frontcourt in the league, and that's before you even think about Parker coming back at some point during the season. Lennox gives them a true threat on the perimeter that they didn't have last season and even Quinn, despite her limitations, should be a workable point guard for this squad. On a young team you might worry about the fact that they all know Cooper is leaving at the end of the season, and that they would underperform as a result. We've certainly seen plenty of teams in a variety of leagues have that reaction to playing under an outgoing head coach in the past. But this is such a veteran group, and Leslie is such a motivating force, that it's hard to see any kind of implosion happening, even if Coop walked away mid-season. Some of the pieces still have to mesh, but the Sparks are considered favorites for the West for solid reasons, and it's hard to argue against them.

2009 WNBA Preview - Western Conference-Body-5


Significant additions: Kelly Miller, Renee Montgomery, LaToya Pringle, Quanitra Hollingsworth, Christi Thomas
Significant losses: Lindsey Harding, Nicole Ohlde, Noelle Quinn, Vanessa Hayden, Anna DeForge

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Kelly Miller
SG: Candice Wiggins
SF: Seimone Augustus
PF: Quanitra Hollingsworth
C: Nicky Anosike

Bench includes: Renee Montgomery, Charde Houston, LaToya Pringle, Christi Thomas

Oh Minnesota fans, how I love thee. I got emails after my preview article last year from disgruntled Lynx fans, upset that I used phrases like 'poor, poor Minnesota' and 'another trip to the lottery' in the section on their team, before placing them rock bottom of the West in my predicted standings. Guess where they finished? After a surprising 6-1 start that made it look like I might have to eat my words the young Lynx tailed off and ended up last the West, although admittedly they finished tied with Phoenix and only two games out of the playoffs. Progress was definitely made in Minnesota last season (I predicted that as well, but the emailers kinda glossed over that part) and hopefully that should continue this year after a couple of savvy trades added both veteran leadership and yet more talented youth. The fact that their coach bolted three days before the start of the season would usually be cause for concern, but as Don Zierden was hardly the most outstanding play-caller in the league, it's doubtful that they're going to miss him all that much.

Minnesota's perimeter is scarily talented, and the pairing of Candice Wiggins and Seimone Augustus rivals the likes of Smith/Nolan and Pondexter/Taurasi for the fear they put into opposing teams. Augustus is as pure and as pretty a wing scorer as you're ever likely to see. Capable of putting up points in multiple ways and with excellent efficiency, her defense also improved last season, despite the transition to playing more small forward than off-guard. Overshadowed somewhat by the other heralded rookies in LA and Chicago, Candice Wiggins had to settle for a mere Sixth Woman of the Year trophy last season in a thoroughly impressive first year as a pro. She can get to the basket and the free-throw line with regularity, and unlike some of her cohorts in the Lynx backcourt last season (Lindsey Harding springs to mind) she can finish when she gets there as well. She's an absolute pest on defense as well.

Some of Wiggins' effectiveness was limited last season by being used as a point guard when other options there didn't work out, much as Alana Beard has found herself forced to that spot in Washington. This season Wiggins should be able to stick to off-guard after big changes at the point in Minnesota. For only the cost of center Nicole Ohlde, whose time was very much up in Minnesota regardless, the Lynx acquired veteran point guard Kelly Miller from Phoenix (and got post LaToya Pringle thrown in for good measure as well). Miller won a championship in 2007 as the point guard alongside two exceptional wing scorers, and should be a great fit on a team that's been crying out for a veteran hand on the tiller for so many years that we've all lost count. She can run a team and play pretty good defense, and even shoots a good percentage from three-point range which should help when teams overplay Wiggins and Augustus. Even behind Miller the alternatives are looking rosier than in the past, with the #4 overall draft pick Renee Montgomery waiting in the wings. Without the pressure of having to lead a team or even start, Montgomery's quickness and scoring should be able to add yet another spark to the Lynx when she enters a game.

Veteran shooter Anna DeForge, who started every game for the Lynx last season at shooting guard, was waived in training camp. Her signing in Minnesota was largely unsuccessful last season, so she's no great loss, but it does leave them with only rookie Rashanda McCants and inconsistent gunner Roneeka Hodges as backups on the wing. Wiggins and Augustus could be playing a whole lot of minutes.

Alongside that point guard issue, finding halfway competent players to fill the paint has been Minnesota's bête noire for several years now. Nicky Anosike and Charde Houston were both somewhat successful as rookies last year, but yet again it's all-change around them as the Lynx try to find a mixture that works. Anosike was a nice find all the way down at #16 in the draft. Her offensive game isn't the most polished, but she has quick hands and is good defensively -- seeing a center come desperately close to leading the league in steals was a remarkable statistic. She has room to develop, and particularly if she can work on her offensive game she'll become an excellent complimentary player for the Lynx. Houston is listed at a generous 6-0 and although she showed flashes of impressive scoring and rebounding last year, that's her major drawback. She's undersized against practically every inside player in the league, and her skill set makes playing small forward a stretch, so it can be hard to find spots for her to play. Still, she's a dangerous weapon to have on the bench against the right opponent. Rookie Quanitra Hollingsworth is the latest hope for post production in the Twin Cities and she certainly brings size at a listed 6-5, 196 pounds. Something of a surprise to most draft prognosticators when she went as high as #9, it will be up to Hollingsworth to try to prove that she warranted going that high, but after the success of their 2008 draft class the Lynx will be hoping to replicate that with Big Q this season. Waiting in the wings as other post alternatives are two players acquired via trade, LaToya Pringle and Christi Thomas. Both have suffered with injuries but could be valuable assets if they manage to stay in shape this season. Pringle is lanky and thin but with her long limbs and freaky athleticism she can be an effective defender in the post even against bigger opponents. Thomas barely played for the Sparks last season even before blowing out her knee, but with the strength of the post players in LA that isn't necessarily a condemnation. If she's fit she has good range for a post player and can stretch defenses, something which could help greatly in Minnesota considering how much Wiggins and Augustus like to drive the lane.

Things are looking up in the land of the Lynx this year, and all those e-mailers will be happy to know that you're not going to be bottom of the West in my predictions this year. Certainly not going to be top either, however. The upgrade of Miller/Montgomery over Quinn/Harding at the point is huge, the continued maturation of Augustus and Wiggins can only make them better, and even though it came at a horrible time the removal of Zierden as coach is probably also a positive. However, there are still so many questions about their post rotation. Anosike has given them some solidity, but Houston is barely a post due to her size and unless Hollingsworth is an instant success they'll be relying on injury-prone backups to fill in the rest of the minutes. They might sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2004, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. Oh, disgruntled emails can be sent to me by clicking on my byline at the top, by the way.

2009 WNBA Preview - Western Conference-Body


Significant additions: Temeka Johnson, Nicole Ohlde, DeWanna Bonner
Significant losses: Kelly Miller, LaToya Pringle, 2010 first-round draft pick, their minds if they honestly think this roster is improved.

Probably starters:
PG: Temeka Johnson
SG: Cappie Pondexter
SF: Diana Taurasi
PF: Le'Coe Willingham
C: Tangela Smith

Bench includes: Nicole Ohlde (probably would've started instead of Willingham, barring the broken foot), DeWanna Bonner, Kelly Mazzante, lots and lots of prayer (this bench is Olsen twin-thin).

Yikes. And the award for the single-most hideous offseason goes to... After months of pursuing Lauren Jackson to the ends of the Earth (well, to Russia anyway), Mercury GM Anne Meyers ultimately came up empty. Meanwhile, a collection of crappy trades has left the 2007 WNBA champions with an even worse and more mismatched roster than they had last season. And last season's team missed the playoffs.

However nuts their GM may be, there's always hope for Merc fans thanks to the two blue-chip talents that even Meyers isn't crazy enough to trade, Diana Taurasi and Cappie Pondexter. Taurasi's a ridiculous offensive talent who can score like crazy and take over games. Her range extends out way beyond the three-point line and when given the opportunity she can create for others as well. Pondexter is a different kind of player but equally gifted. Lightning quick and agile she finds holes in defenses and can create her own shot as well as anyone in the game. Especially in Phoenix's run-and-shoot offense, the WNBA's equivalent of what Mike D'Antoni and Steve Nash used to run with the Suns, Pondexter and Taurasi are an offensive explosion waiting to happen on any given night. If only either of them played any defense.

At the point this season in Phoenix, for no particularly good reason, we have a change. Kelly Miller, who'd been in charge of their offense for three years and was really the only perimeter player they had who could defend worth a damn, was shipped out along with LaToya Pringle in a trade for center Nicole Ohlde. In an effort to fill the hole that was left behind, Meyers sent the Merc's first-round pick in 2010 to Los Angeles for Temeka Johnson. Now it's not like TJ has never been a good WNBA point guard. She has. It's just that her last good season was as a rookie in Washington in 2005, and her last even mediocre one was 2006 in LA. She suffered through injury and a death in the family last season, so they'll be hoping for a bounce-back year now that all that's behind her, but she hasn't shown much worth trading for in recent years. Ultimately, they traded away their starting point guard, an athletic young post prospect and a first-round pick for a gamble on an inconsistent point guard who doesn't know their system, and a slow, mediocre center who's already injured. Again, yikes. Perhaps even more worrying than Johnson having to learn the offense is that she's listed at a generous 5-3 and adds yet another poor defender to the Merc's hideous defensive perimeter. This was the worst defensive team in the league last year, and they found a way to make it worse. That's scary. The perimeter backups, for what they're worth, look to be late pick-up Ketia Swanier (who couldn't make it in Connecticut despite its sore need for another point guard) and gunner Kelly Mazzante (who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn last season). Let’s hope no one gets injured.

The Mercury doesn't really use post players in the traditional sense of the word, but the players they have who do their best to defend in the paint have some talent, even if there aren't all that many of them. Tangela Smith masquerades as a center for Phoenix and has done a decent job over the last couple of years. Her offense is largely made up of outside jumpshots but she works as hard as she can defensively even when forced to match up against bigger and stronger opponents. Le'Coe Willingham was a bright spot in Phoenix last year after being brought in from obscurity off the end of Connecticut's bench. She put in some fine performances and scored at a high percentage when she could actually get hold of the ball (Phoenix has a lot of players who like to shoot - it can be hard work getting the ball from your own teammates sometimes).

DeWanna Bonner was selected by Phoenix with the fifth pick in the draft and could be a post player, could be a wing, or could be just about anything if you believe the Mercury coaching staff. She's tall and long and showed off some nice skills in college, but many question whether she can stand up to the physical rigors of the WNBA. If she can, the Mercury could have found themselves another gem (and she'd be a perfect fit for their various gimmick defenses); if she can't, then this roster just found itself about six-deep (which Olsen twin is the even thinner one)?

Nicole Ohlde was brought in via the Miller trade presumably to be the starting center, pushing Smith to power forward and Willingham to her rightful spot as an energy bench player. Ohlde doesn't look to be a great fit in Phoenix - she isn't particularly mobile, she doesn't rebound and her defense is suspect. Okay, in some ways that means she fits right in, but you're supposed to acquire people who help rectify those issues, not duplicate them. After breaking her foot during the preseason, Ohlde will miss the start of the regular season but hopefully she can get back quickly to at least provide some depth, even if she doesn't really solve any of their other issues. She's certainly better than the likes of Brooke Smith, who's the only other post backup on the roster.

I hate having a go at the Mercury, I really do. The pace at which they play makes them enormously enjoyable to watch, just so long as you don't like to watch anyone play defense. Any team with Taurasi and Pondexter on it is going to score a lot of points, especially with the way Phoenix play, but I just can't see how they're going to stop anyone this season. And I mean anyone. Like, if Nancy Lieberman makes another comeback, these guys might make her look under 45. If Johnson turns back the clock to 2005, and Bonner turns out to be as good as coach Corey Gaines thinks she is, and Taurasi wins the MVP, then maybe this team can contend. But I don't see it happening. And in about 10 months, assuming this league is still alive (knock on wood), I think there's a strong possibility they could really be missing that 2010 1st round pick that they've already given away.

2009 WNBA Preview - Western Conference-Body-4


Significant additions: Hamchétou Maïga-Ba, Courtney Paris, a hopefully ambulatory DeMya Walker
Significant losses: Adrian Williams-Strong (20mpg starting center last season so has to make this list, but may have provided a new definition for 'addition via subtraction'), A'Quonesia Franklin, Kim Smith (wow, would you believe I typed those last two with a straight face?)

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Ticha Penicheiro
SG: Scholanda Robinson
SF: Nicole Powell
PF: Rebekkah Brunson
C: Laura Harper

Bench includes: Kara Lawson, DeMya Walker, Courtney Paris, Hamchétou Maïga-Ba, Crystal Kelly, Chelsea Newton

Sacramento is a confusing team for people like me trying to preview and predict how a season might go. Every year you look at their roster and you don't really see stars. There are a bunch of good players, but no one with that 'wow' factor that jumps out at you. Ticha Penicheiro is an exceptional point guard, but after 11 years in the WNBA she is clearly on the back end of her career. Rebekkah Brunson is an athletic marvel at power forward but can't seem to stay healthy. DeMya Walker's skills have been dulled by injury after injury. Kara Lawson and Nicole Powell are nice complimentary players but certainly not stars. But somehow, through depth, drive, grit and determination, this team never seems to miss the playoffs. In fact 2002 was the last time that happened. So predict against them at your peril, even if you can't quite work out why.

I love watching Ticha Penicheiro play. In fact, any true fan of the game of basketball should love watching Ticha play. Yes, we all know that, to say the least, shooting is not necessarily her forte, but she showed up last season with an improved jumpshot that forced teams to at least recognise her shot as an option. She runs a team as well as anyone, delivers the ball where it needs to be, plays solid, hard-nosed defense, and every now and then will toss a circus pass that gets you out of your seat. That's what I want from my point guard. The backup point guard minutes this season in Sacramento look like they'll mostly be going to Kara Lawson, who showed she could at least do a decent job at that spot with Team USA in the Olympics last summer. Sacramento dumped last season's backup A'Quonesia Franklin in the offseason and haven't really replaced her, so although she's a more natural 2-guard Lawson could be playing at least 10 minutes per game at the point. She's happier when she can gun away at the off-guard spot but as with most of Sacramento's roster has the discipline to adapt her game to what coach Jenny Boucek asks her to do.

The Monarchs' other guards were somewhat up in the air until the very last minute, which gives you an idea of their talent level. Chelsea Newton (the defensive one who can't shoot) and Scholanda Robinson (the quick one who's often out of control) beat out Miao Lijie (the Chinese one who can score but has practically no WNBA experience) for the last two spots. Either one could start at off-guard with Sacramento’s fondness for bringing Lawson off the bench, but they may also be scouring the waiver wire for an upgrade.

Nicole Powell has been a steady presence at small forward for Sacramento for several years now, and the re-acquisition of a true backup for her in the offseason can hopefully only drive her forward. Like Lawson, Powell isn't the quickest player in the world but when she gets hot she can light it up from outside. Considering she shot 41% from 3-point range last season but barely 34% from inside the arc, maybe she should stick to jacking it up from long range. Hamchétou Maïga-Ba is the re-acquired backup, returning to Sacramento as a free agent after two years playing in Houston. She'll get some minutes at the 2 but mostly will be an energy boost and defensive backup for Powell, whose occasionally lackadaisical play could use the kick in the backside that Maïga-Ba's aggression should give it.

Sacramento’s post is populated by talented yet injury-prone veterans and youngsters who are still looking to improve. Yet, as mentioned before, they do tend to get things done, whoever they put on the floor. Rebekkah Brunson, despite only officially missing five regular-season games in her five-year pro career, clearly struggled to cope with a variety of ailments last season and enters this year still trying to recover from offseason knee surgery. Her game has developed to the stage where she's a threat to rack up points and rebounds even without exactly having a plethora of offensive moves, if she can just get back to full strength and stay there. DeMya Walker is the other veteran presence, back yet again after what feels like her 37th knee injury, but apparently healthy entering the season. There's no way that Walker can ever be what she was, purely due to her physical condition, but she's a smart enough player to get the most out of what's left of her body and still be of value to the Monarchs.

Now for the youth. Second-year players Laura Harper and Crystal Kelly are joined by rookie Courtney Paris as help for Brunson and Walker, and if nothing else their size and bulk will make it hard work driving the lane against Sacramento this season. Harper and Kelly were both solid parts of Sacramento's post rotation last season in their rookie years. Neither set the world on fire but both rebounded well and scored when the opportunity presented itself. The Monarchs will be looking for both to develop this season and perhaps flash more offensive moves, especially if Brunson and Walker are limited by their health. Courtney Paris could be the wildcard in this mix. After long being projected as a top draft pick, potentially #1 overall, she fell to the Monarchs at the 7th pick because of concerns about her physical condition and whether she could get into the shape necessary to play at the WNBA level. She was dominant in college, and you don't put up the sort of numbers she did without inherent talent, but until she proves it at the pro level all the doubters will remain. If she puts it all together and works on her conditioning, she could be an absolute steal all the way down at #7.

I said it once and I'll say it again -- doubt this team at your peril. Their depth-based system, which relies on playing ten players in every game, isn't helped by the new rules on roster limits, especially with Lawson and Brunson both fighting with injuries to start the year, but this is a franchise that somehow manages to find a way. Coach Boucek keeps them rolling and fighting no matter who she has available to put on the floor, and you can guarantee that even if the shots aren't falling, every night they'll put in the effort their fans expect. Barring Brunson regaining full health and taking a leap into the true WNBA elite, I'd be shocked to see them make a run at the WNBA title, but I'd be equally surprised to see them miss the playoffs. These women just don't quit. Ever.

2009 WNBA Preview - Western Conference-Body-3


Significant additions: Shanna Crossley's ability to stand up, Katie Mattera (née Feenstra), Belinda Snell, Megan Frazee
Significant losses: Ann Wauters for a while, Sandora Irvin (okay, I didn't manage the straight face for that one).

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Becky Hammon
SG: Vickie Johnson
SF: Erin Buescher-Perperoglou (that name's fantastic; please go with the hypenate, Erin)
PF: Sophia Young
C: Ruth Riley (Ann Wauters once she arrives)

Bench includes: Riley (when Wauters shows), Helen Darling, Shanna Crossley, Belinda Snell, Edwige Lawson-Wade, Katie Mattera, Megan Frazee

You let me down San Antonio! That introduction about 13,000 words ago would've sounded so much more impressive if I could have claimed to have predicted the Finals and the right winner last season. But no. The little blonde (now brunette) Russian and her cohorts had to go and fall apart in the Finals after an impressive regular season and hard-fought wins over Sacramento and Los Angeles in the playoffs. Once their whole roster is actually in town this is now a deeper team with fewer holes than last year, but in such a competitive Western conference they're going to need to win some games even while somewhat undermanned to make sure they're still in the mix for the playoffs and preferably home-court advantage.

While Hammon stole the limelight, much of San Antonio's success last season came from their starting duo down low, Sophia Young and Ann Wauters. Young is listed at a generous 6-1 and is undersized compared to many power forwards in the league, but she's quick and skilled with enough range to make teams respect her jumper. Her appearance on last season's All-WNBA Defensive First Team was, well, pretty laughable in all honesty considering she practically never guards the best opposing player, but it does reflect how she's developed on that side of the ball as well. Wauters was back in the WNBA for the first time since 2005 and was an immediate success. Her size, rebounding and interior scoring gave them another element that just wasn't there the previous year when Ruth Riley was filling the same spot. Unfortunately for San Antonio, Wauters is taking the first half of this season off, although I guess promising to show up for the second-half is better than skipping the WNBA entirely as the big Belgian did in 2006 and 2007. Coach/GM Dan Hughes has added some depth to his post options in the offseason to try and help them cope with Wauters's absence. Riley is still there and will fill in as best she can as the starter. Her offensive game is limited mostly to setting screens and throwing up jumpshots these days, but if she can stay healthy she's still a reasonable post defender. Katie Mattera was eventually bought out and waived by Atlanta who needed to shed her contract, allowing the Silver Stars to reacquire the player who spent her first two WNBA seasons with them (back when she was Katie Feenstra). She's practically immobile but she's huge and ought to at least be a more valuable post backup than Sandora Irvin was last year (not that that's saying much). A graduate of the same Liberty University that produced Feenstra, rookie Megan Frazee is the final member of the post corps. She's got some size and some range so there's always the chance that she could earn a few minutes on the end of Hughes' rotation.

While Becky Hammon is the obvious headliner, the versatility and depth of San Antonio's perimeter players provide Dan Hughes with a variety of looks and combinations that he can throw at opponents. Hammon has become an even more aggressive scorer since she made the move from New York to Texas two years ago. Sliding between cracks in defenses that barely seem to exist and throwing up a barrage of 3s, she can be a nightmare for opposing defenses, although she started last season slowly and was swamped in the Finals by Detroit and Katie Smith. Her Russian affiliation looks like it's going to require her to fly over to Latvia and play in Women's EuroBasket in a week or two, racking up the air miles and missing at least two Silver Stars games, but that shouldn't be too disruptive for a team that's fairly used to adapting on the fly when necessary. Back once again alongside Hammon is Vickie Johnson, who like Griffith and Leslie has announced that this will be her final year. It feels like VJ's been around forever and her game has noticeably slowed, but her stable, complete game continues to make her a solid complement to Hammon's more erratic and attacking tendencies. She helps cover for Becky's dismal defense as well. Johnson's ability to play anywhere from point guard to small forward and Hammon's combo-guard skills allow the fifth starter to be practically any kind of perimeter player. Preseason indications suggest it's most likely to be forward Erin Buescher (or Erin Perperoglou. Or Erin Buescher-Perperoglou. They're all the same person but she got married in the offseason and reports conflict as to the current accurate name). Like VJ, Buescher is the consummate complimentary player, willing to do all the garbage work and the little things a team needs to win. Her versatility as a 3/4 who can play inside or out gives Hughes extra options as well. Also, as she showed by doing a heck of a job guarding Candace Parker and Deanna Nolan in consecutive playoff series last summer, Buescher's the more impressive defender among the forwards in San Antonio, even if Young got the hardware.

The backup perimeter players in San Antonio look healthier and more varied than they did at the end of last season. Shanna Crossley is back after blowing out her knee and missing the entire 2008 season. Like Hammon she likes to send up 3 after 3 (and play no defense at the other end) but she was beginning to show signs of becoming a more complete player before going down last year. Veteran depth on the wing has been added through the signing of Australian Belinda Snell, released for no good reason by Phoenix. Snelly can hit from downtown as well but has more size and a more diverse game than Crossley. She's certainly a nice extra piece to have. When Hughes wants to go to a smaller starting lineup he can replace Buescher with either of his two backup point guards, Helen Darling and Edwige Lawson-Wade. Their skills overlap considerably but both can competently initiate the offense and hit the occasional shot, although Darling in particular had trouble finding the hoop last season (and found getting anything to go through it practically impossible).

There's really no good reason that this team shouldn't threaten for a championship again this year. Although they'll have to wait for Wauters and could be slightly upset by the ridiculous situation with Hammon and Russia to start the season, the squad is good enough to stay solidly in contention until their starting center arrives. They're a better, deeper unit than last season, and with the playoff experience they've gained from the 2008 run they should be just as dangerous in 2009. The only fear is how much better certain opponents may have gotten, especially that bunch in southern California.

2009 WNBA Preview - Western Conference-Body-2


Significant additions: Lauren Jackson's new contract, Janell Burse, Suzy Batkovic-Brown, PeeWee Johnson, Ashley Walker
Significant losses: Yolanda Griffith, Sheryl Swoopes, several fingernails while waiting for LJ to make a decision

Probable starting lineup:
PG: Sue Bird
SG: Tanisha Wright
SF: Swin Cash
PF: Lauren Jackson
C: Janell Burse

Bench includes: Camille Little, Suzy Batkovic, PeeWee Johnson, Ashley Walker, Katie Gearlds, Ashley Robinson

You know, it just wouldn't have been fair to take Lauren Jackson away from Seattle. Oklahoma City already stole their NBA team, so Phoenix stealing away arguably the best female basketball player in the world just would have been piling on the agony. Fortunately for Storm fans, the fair Miss Jackson chose to continue to ply her trade in the Pacific Northwest, because although they managed to survived pretty well after she went down with injury last season, their championship hopes were just about nonexistent without her. It's a slightly younger Storm team this year that looks to have plugged some of the holes from last season, but once again, whether they're still in serious contention in late September will likely come down to the potentially fragile health of key players.

We all said before last season that the Storm were eminently talented but vulnerable to key injuries, and ultimately that did indeed prove to be their downfall. The most crucial was the loss of Jackson to an ankle injury for the post-Olympic games and the playoffs, leaving them without enough firepower to hold off LA in the first-round. Jackson spent the offseason playing somewhat limited minutes in Russia while 'rehabbing' her injury. Her production was down, which might be slightly worrying for coach Brian Agler, but if Jackson's truly healthy, or at least reasonably close, then she's still one of the best two or three female players on the planet. A superior scorer with legitimate three-point range, Jackson has multiple ways she can hurt you at the offensive end. Alongside that and often overlooked, she's also one of the best post defenders in the game, using her size and strength well to frustrate opponents. She's an MVP candidate if her body can just hold up. Down in the paint alongside LJ this season it's all-change from last year, but they're familiar faces. Yolanda Griffith is gone but center Janell Burse is back after taking 2008 off to rest a variety of injuries, and she's a solid interior compliment to Jackson. Burse isn't a dominant scorer or rebounder but she's developed into a fairly consistent 10 points/six rebounds kind of player and plays solid defense. Unfortunately those injuries do seem to keep troubling her, and there are reports that she's already struggling yet again with the shoulder injury that plagued her 2007 season. Australian Suzy Batkovic-Brown will also be returning, playing in the WNBA for the first time since 2005. She isn't the quickest or most aggressive center in the world, but she's got some skills and plenty of size, and her chemistry with LJ from their time with the Australian national team can only help. Ashley Robinson also looks to be making the team yet again as the final backup at center. She's a complete non-factor offensively but multiple Storm coaches seem to have appreciated her ability at the defensive end.

Point guard continues to be probably the weakest position in the women's game, so for the eighth straight year Seattle fans can be happy that they have one of the few top-quality floor generals available, Sue Bird. And guess what Sue? For the first time in five freaking years, they actually went out and got you a halfway-competent backup. Bird has been a solid leader, a consistent scorer and a skilled distributor almost from the minute she entered the league, but in the second-half of last season when her team really needed her to step up without Jackson she showed that she's capable of even more. If the aggressive offensive player she became in late-2008 can show her head a little more often this year as well, then she becomes an even more valuable weapon in Seattle's armory. That backup they finally got is Shannon 'PeeWee' Johnson, a 10-year WNBA vet who did a decent job as Houston's starter last year, but is probably more suited to the backup role at this stage in her career. She can score when necessary, be a nuisance defensively and we may even see Bird playing alongside her at the 2 at times this season. Possibly even happier that Bird has a legitimate backup is her partner in the backcourt, Tanisha Wright. Wright was forced to slide over and backup Bird in previous years, but to get the most out of her she needs to play at the 2 and stay there. She's an excellent defender (especially helpful as defense is one of Bird's main weaknesses), and started to flash some offensive skills last year when released from some of her playmaking responsibilities. With Sheryl Swoopes released after another injury-plagued year, Wright's backup looks to be Katie Gearlds. Something of a disappointment for much of her first two years in the league, Gearlds's lack of foot speed can sometimes be exploited defensively, but she can get hot from downtown on occasion. Those occasions need to become more commonplace for her value to the Storm to increase.

A whole host of swing forwards give Seattle added depth both on the wing and down into the paint, giving coach Brian Agler multiple alternatives for lineups he can put on the floor. If she can get healthy (there are those words, yet again), Swin Cash is the starter and the most potentially dangerous of the group. All-Star calibre back in her early Detroit days, Cash hasn't been that player for years now, but she's still capable of producing at both ends when she can get on the court. A back injury that limited her last season was operated on in March, and she was only recently cleared to practice. Then her knee swelled in recent days and she's questionable for the start of the season. There's still talent there with Cash but it's hard to know how much you can rely on her at this point. Camille Little was acquired partway through last season and added a much needed wing backup who can also defend post players. She even started to show some offensive skills once LJ went down and they needed production from elsewhere, but her value is mostly as a strong defender against anything from shooting guards to power forwards. Rookie Ashley Walker gives them yet more depth at the forward spots and is in the perfect position to watch and learn while pressing her own case for backup minutes, especially if the injuries hit.

This is a very talented team. People forget that they won two more games than LA last year, despite losing Jackson to injury halfway through and struggling with injuries to Cash, Swoopes and Griffith all season long. That ability to win despite adversity should be of considerable benefit through the regular season, but when the playoffs come around and they're facing the big guns they need their key pieces fit and healthy. If the likes of Jackson, Bird, Burse and Cash are all in one piece come September then they'll be a dangerous threat to the teams in LA and San Antonio that are currently being paid more attention.
 

And now for those spot-on predictions you've all been waiting for...

Eastern Conference Regular Season Standings

Detroit Shock
Connecticut Sun
Indiana Fever
New York Liberty
Atlanta Dream
Chicago Sky
Washington Mystics

Western Conference Regular Season Standings

Los Angeles Sparks
Seattle Storm
San Antonio Silver Stars
Sacramento Monarchs
Minnesota Lynx
Phoenix Mercury

Conference Semi-Finals

New York yet again can't get past Detroit, although they push it to 2-1
Ugly, ugly series as Indiana fights through Connecticut 2-1

Los Angeles just too talented for Sacramento, but made to work for it, 2-1
Seattle gets lucky and somehow stays healthy enough to hold off San Antonio, 2-1

Conference Finals

Brutal battle everywhere on the floor as Detroit is just too deep, and holds Indiana off, 2-1
Los Angeles just has too much firepower for the Storm, 2-0

WNBA Finals

Leslie goes out on a high, LA over Detroit 3-2

Individual Awards (and I'm doing every last one of them this year)

MVP: If somehow the Mercury win enough then I think it's Taurasi's time, but as bad as her team could be that counts heavily against an MVP case.
I'm taking Deanna Nolan. I think Tweety could make a push and take the award this year as injuries and age elsewhere on the Shock roster
force her to take on a greater role and increase her raw numbers.

Defensive Player of the Year: Tamika Catchings. If she's healthy she's exceptional.
Sylvia Fowles as an outsider if Chicago wins enough to make people notice.

Rookie of the Year: Wide open this year (unlike last season). DeWanna Bonner has a chance to make noise in Phoenix as she'll get minutes, but I'll take Briann January in Indiana. She's going to get the chance to start, and if Indiana has a bounce-back year she'll get plenty of credit for it.

Coach of the Year: Brian Agler. This award usually goes to a team that outperforms expectations, and Seattle seems to be slightly underestimated going into the season.

6th Woman of the Year: Candace Parker. I know it sounds ridiculous, but Cooper's shown a propensity to bring stars off the bench in the past, and if LA is winning when she arrives I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep the same starters. Question is whether she'll play enough.
Plenette Pierson is consistently a safe bet to contend here as well.

Most Improved Player: This award's always a crapshoot. Maybe Sylvia Fowles if voters are dumb enough not to realize she was injured last year. Sandrine Gruda if she gets enough of an opportunity to play in Connecticut.

Kim Perrot Sportsmanship Award: Predicting this is ridiculous, but I'll take Yolanda Griffith as a parting gift in her final season.
Can't believe they'd give it to Leslie.


All-WNBA First Team:
Diana Taurasi
Deanna Nolan
Lauren Jackson
Tamika Catchings
Lisa Leslie

All-WNBA Second Team:
Sue Bird
Lindsay Whalen
Tina Thompson
Sophia Young
Sylvia Fowles

All-WNBA Defensive First Team:
Ticha Penicheiro
Deanna Nolan
Katie Smith
Tamika Catchings
Lisa Leslie

All-WNBA Defensive Second-Team:
Candice Wiggins
Tanisha Wright
Erin Buescher-Perperoglou (I'm gonna keep pointing out that she should be in this company until people start paying attention)
Lauren Jackson
Sylvia Fowles

All-WNBA Rookie Team:
Briann January
Angel McCoughtry
Marissa Coleman
DeWanna Bonner
Courtney Paris

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