Told Ya So!

Unless something is brewing right this minute, the final week prior to today's WNBA trade deadline was as uneventful as expected, producing just one transaction. As predicted in last week's column, the only meaningful player involved was Kara Braxton (I contemplated changing the name in the byline to Nostradamus, but that seemed a little over the top). Phoenix picked up the 6-6 center from Tulsa for Nicole Ohlde and their 2011 first-round draft pick, a price which initially looks excessive, but will be considered more than worth it if she helps them past Seattle and back into the WNBA Finals.

So ultimately, this trade is Phoenix sending their first-round pick in next year's draft to Tulsa in order to rent Kara Braxton for their final 13 regular season games and the playoffs.

As with nearly every trade in US professional sports, properly understanding this move requires a knowledge of the contract status of both players. Both Braxton and Ohlde have WNBA maximum contracts which are running out at the end of this season. As both have been in the league for at least six years, both will become unrestricted free agents when their current deals expire. The WNBA has a system whereby each team can 'core' one unrestricted free agent to prevent her from leaving the team (that player is then guaranteed at least a one-year maximum contract), but it's unlikely either team would have used their core designation on Braxton or Ohlde. So ultimately, this trade is Phoenix sending their first-round pick in next year's draft to Tulsa in order to rent Kara Braxton for their final 13 regular season games and the playoffs. Ohlde had to go in the opposite direction because the Mercury are right up against the league's salary cap, so they needed her out of the way to create enough room for Braxton.

It's a risk for Phoenix. Their roster isn't deep and hasn't been for years. The draft pick looks like it'll probably end up being somewhere around 7th overall in the 2011 draft, and that player could have helped the Mercury in the future. She would have at least given them a chance to add some cheap potential to their bench (players on rookie contracts are cheaper than any veterans they might find in free agency). Instead they get a player who might play fifteen games for the Mercury and then walk for nothing. Nicole Ohlde was a complete bust in her year-and-a-half in Phoenix, despite the neverending claims from the Mercury front office that her size and shooting touch would supposedly help them when she got healthy. Either she's been hurt an awful long time or they were as full of it as most of us thought from the start. So you can't blame the Mercury for taking a shot with a different big - it's just a matter of whether or not she was worth the price.

Kara Braxton is a thoroughly frustrating basketball player. She's a big girl (listed at 6-6, 225, although who knows how close that weight is to actual reality by now) but she's got a nice touch inside and when she's interested she can put up points in bunches. Her height and bulk can also be a pain for the opposition at the other end, and the Merc's truly atrocious defense could certainly use any help it can get. But mentally, Kara is not a player you can rely on. She drifts out of games. She makes too many boneheaded plays at both ends of the floor for a player with her natural gifts. She's 7th in the league this season in turnovers per game, despite only playing in 17 minutes per contest while in Tulsa, making her the league leader by miles in turnovers per minute played. Not to mention the two occasions she's been suspended by the WNBA for DUI convictions. This is not the smartest, most in-control basketball player you'll ever encounter. On top of that, the Mercury hierarchy keeps telling us that their system is more complicated than it appears. That's supposedly been part of the reason behind some of Candice Dupree's growing pains in Phoenix, especially on the defensive end. If Dupree has had trouble fitting in - a player whose range and athleticism always looked like a natural fit for the Mercury's system - how is Braxton going to manage with barely a month to go until the playoffs?

For Tulsa, this was a great move. Unless the league allowed the Shock to core two players again this year (they got an extra spot last offseason due to dubious contract issues left over from the Detroit regime), they weren't going to core Braxton at the end of the year. Considering her randomly fluctuating minutes under Nolan Richardson's 'system,' there was no chance she was going to stick around by choice. So the Shock got a first-round pick for free. Braxton would have walked for nothing, and now they just let Ohlde walk instead (or re-sign her for significantly less cash if both sides are interested once this season plays out). Phoenix won't miss the playoffs, but their chances of chasing down Seattle or any of the playoff teams in the East look slim, which would make their pick #7 or higher. People better schooled in college hoops than I tell me it's a reasonably deep draft next year, and more young talent certainly can't hurt the rebuilding job that clearly needs to be undertaken in Tulsa, whether Richardson's still in charge or not. Nolan's rightly taken a lot of criticism for some of his moves this year, including right here in this little corner of cyberspace, but from a Shock perspective this one was a steal.

Whether this move was worthwhile for the Mercury will depend on how they do in the playoffs. The Merc as constructed were already comfortably the second-best team in the West, so Braxton was clearly brought in with the hope that she'll help against Lauren Jackson and the Storm. For those who also follow the NBA, this switch reminds me of the move the Dallas Mavericks made to bring in Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood just before the trade deadline last season. It was a positive move and made the team better, leading to a strong finish to the regular season. But it still didn't make you think that they could truly challenge the Lakers (and they ultimately got dumped out of the playoffs before they even had the chance to face LA). Braxton makes the Mercury better, but does she make them good enough to beat Seattle? Is the upgrade from Ohlde to Braxton for a couple of months really worth that pick? The Storm would still be the strong favourites if the expected Western Conference Finals matchup does come to fruition, and that draft pick will be looking like a gift if Braxton ends up walking away from Phoenix without any compensation, or another banner in the rafters.

Sometimes the Road is Your Friend

In a league where only one team had a winning road record at the start of the week, the last seven days in the WNBA saw nine road wins in only 14 contests as teams across the league stole unexpected wins that complicated the standings even further. New York was off on a three-game road trip that would have all but finished their season if they'd lost all three, and they started each of them as the underdogs. They seemed to try as hard as they could to give away the ESPN2 game in Connecticut on Tuesday night, blowing a 13-point lead in the last five minutes of regulation, but eventually pulled it out in overtime behind 24 points from Cappie Pondexter. They followed that up with a win in Chicago on Friday night, a rare game this season in which Pondexter was actually outscored by one of her teammates as New York finally found a little balance. The trip was only marred by a loss in Atlanta yesterday afternoon, an 11-0 run by the Dream in the last three minutes killing off the Liberty's push for a perfect week. Still, they'd definitely have taken 2-1 if you'd offered it to them last Monday.

Connecticut, on the other hand, had a horrible week. Obviously, it's not a good idea to spend the entire week at home when the league's on a road tear. After looking like they'd built some momentum with two big wins over Atlanta and Indiana the previous week, that loss to New York on national TV on Tuesday night was followed by an ugly home loss to LA on Saturday. In fairness, the Sparks got stupid hot from outside, draining fifteen threes, and sometimes there's just nothing you can do about that. But you're just not supposed to lose to the 2010 version of the Los Angeles Sparks, especially when you're at home, where you started the week 8-1 for the season.  LA was 1-10 on the road before that game, their only previous victory coming in Tulsa. Yikes. If New York could have finished off their road trip with another win in Atlanta they would've taken over fourth place in the East from the Sun, leaving Connecticut outside the playoff spots. They need to turn things around quickly because the Liberty and Sky are both chasing hard.

Saturday night was the culmination of Road Week, as four games resulted in four road victories. That huge upset for LA over Connecticut was accompanied by a far less surprising Indiana win in Washington, where the Fever made it clear through whom Eastern Conference supremacy still runs.  Holding Crystal Langhorne to just six shots for the game, Indiana gave the Mystics a taste of what will likely be waiting for them in the Eastern Conference Finals if they can fight that far into the postseason. Chicago followed up with a win in San Antonio, dragging themselves back to .500 again after the setback against New York the night before. Finally, in a game that finished long after the others were all done and dusted, Phoenix beat Minnesota in a double-overtime epic 127-124 that broke all kinds of WNBA scoring records. After setting a new team scoring record on Thursday night in Tulsa with 123, the Merc took all of two days to break it again, winning a game that they had no business being in if Minnesota could just close a game out. The Lynx have now lost their last three games by a total of seven points, all at home, and all with chances to win or tie at the buzzer. Young teams often go through periods where it feels like they're still learning how to win, but it can be sometimes be truly painful while you're being taught the lessons. Even more excruciating when you're learning them all on your own floor.

Playoff Picture

Seattle is in. It took the League and their website longer to notice than anyone else who cared and could do some simple arithmetic, but they got there in the end. That much-coveted 'x' is now sitting pretty next to their name in the standings. Give it a couple of weeks and they'll have homecourt in the West sealed as well.

Everyone else is still in play, because everyone in the East is pretty good, and outside of Seattle everyone in the West has been pretty terrible. Although if you think Tulsa is making the playoffs, I've got a bridge for sale that I think you might be interested in.

Injury and Transactions Report

Beyond the Braxton/Ohlde trade, the only move made this week was in Chicago, where Sandora Irvin was waived to make room for Shay Murphy, picked up less than two weeks after Indiana cut her while claiming she was hurt. Clearly illustrating that they're not expecting Shameka Christon back any time soon, Murphy offers Chicago a real backup for Tamera Young, who's been starting in Christon's absence. After a fast start for the Fever, Murphy's production fell off a cliff, reportedly due to a wrist injury she carried most of the year that ultimately led to her release. The 1-7 shooting she managed in her first game for Chicago on Saturday suggests it might still be lingering but Irvin wasn't producing (or even playing) much, so it's probably worth a shot. Holding Murphy's rights for next year could prove to be the most useful part of this move if she can ultimately return to her form from early this season when that wrist fully heals.

On the injury front, Atlanta point guard Shalee Lehning missed Wednesday's loss in Washington with a bruised quad but was back in the lineup yesterday afternoon for their game against New York.

Indiana guard Shavonte Zellous was in street clothes for both of the Fever's games this week due to left-knee tendinitis. News is sparse about when she might return, but the Fever is winning without her anyway so they won't be rushing her back.

Quadriceps tendinitis is limiting Connecticut guard Kara Lawson, and she missed the entire second half and overtime of Tuesday's game against New York. She was back in the starting lineup for Saturday's matchup with LA, but played only 18 minutes in the disappointing loss to the Sparks.

In some positive news on the injury front, Alexis Hornbuckle returned from her ankle sprain yesterday after missing six games for Tulsa. The last remaining member of the Detroit Shock currently on Tulsa's roster, there's always the chance that she might've been traded by the time you're reading this, but for now Tulsa is back to the full complement of eleven.

Coming up this week

WNBAapalooza tomorrow, as all twelve teams find themselves in action on the same day for the first time this season. Tulsa kicks it off early with their Camp Day game against Atlanta, but the highlight is the ESPN2 double-header in the evening. San Antonio travels to New York for the first game, Becky Hammon returning for her yearly visit back to her former stomping-ground. The late game is another one of those entertaining Phoenix-Seattle matchups, a series the Storm currently lead 3-0 for the season. Seattle needed triple-overtime to finish the Mercury off in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago and neither team will want to give any ground considering this still looks the most likely pairing for the Western Conference Finals in September. Kara Braxton gets her first shot at showing what she can offer to help the Mercury contend with LJ and her cohorts.

It's a huge week for the Connecticut Sun after those two disappointing home losses to New York and LA. Washington on Tuesday and Atlanta on Friday both visit the Mohegan Sun as Mike Thibault's team looks to re-establish their home dominance. With New York at home to thoroughly beatable Western Conference opponents on the same nights, the Sun better find something fast or they'll be outside the playoff spots looking in. The Sun and Liberty round off the week playing each other at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon. New York leads the season series 2-1, with a fifth game also on the schedule on the last day of the regular season. A win for the Liberty would seal the tie-break over the Sun and could put a huge dent in Connecticut's efforts to hold on to a playoff spot, especially if the Sun haven't taken care of business back at Mohegan earlier in the week.

Minnesota faces LA on Tuesday night in a game that has bizarrely managed to take on playoff significance. After two wins this week, LA is somehow back in the hunt for the postseason, while the Lynx have to recover mentally after that series of nail-biting losses. With a trip to Phoenix and a visit from Seattle to come later in the week, the home game against LA is the time to snap out of it.

Insert Headline Here

This is the bit where I'll come back and add something in if any of the braintrusts at the twelve WNBA franchises decide to pull the trigger on a last minute trade to beat today's deadline. I wouldn't hold your breath. And I use the word 'braintrust' in the loosest possible sense.

And so...

Edited To Add: Well he said he wanted an expansion team

On deadline day, Tulsa finally shed themselves of the last remaining Detroit Shock player on their roster, sending Alexis Hornbuckle to Minnesota in a straight up swap for Rashanda McCants. Now early this season, McCants was getting some real minutes and putting in some serviceable performances for the Lynx (they were losing practically every game, but she was playing okay). Still, she's basically a shooter whose shots don't go in all that often. Hornbuckle's pretty clearly the better player, unless you're expecting McCants to blossom at some theoretical point in the future. And she's only a year younger than Hornbuckle. The new Lynx addition isn't the most efficient scorer either, but she's always had a decent percentage from three-point range, she's a solid distributor, and she's an absolute pest defensively on the perimeter. With Wiggins out, Wright struggling through her rookie season and Maïga-Ba having a thoroughly mediocre year, Hornbuckle should be a nice boost to Cheryl Reeve's perimeter rotation. She can even spell Lindsay Whalen at the point for a few minutes if Reeve prefers to keep Nuria Martinez on the bench. Hornbuckle's also still got a year left on her rookie deal, so she's cheap through next season as well.

Why Nolan Richardson would make this swap, except to complete the cleansing of all Detroit players from his roster, one can only guess. Maybe with all her former teammates gone, Hornbuckle requested a move and he acquiesced. Maybe he has some vague notion of making the Tulsa Shock 'his team' by removing all remnants of the Laimbeer/Mahorn/Reeve era in Detroit. Maybe he sees more in Rashanda McCants than most of us have during her time in Minnesota. Or maybe he's just nuts. Regardless, the only hint of the Detroit Shock remaining is the nickname and the cored rights to Deanna Nolan. Even if she ultimately makes a return to the WNBA, don't expect to ever see Nolan in a Tulsa uniform. Considering his efforts, presumably Nolan Richardson wouldn't want her there anyway.

Till next time, everybody.

Tags: Dwayne Wright, Jim Sorgi, Kara Braxton, Nicole Ohlde, Phoenix Mercury